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Michael
Joined: 28 Jan 2012
Posts: 3823
Location: Bridgeport
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 Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2014 12:48 am Post subject: Not Looking Good |
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For you fishermen who are getting ready for the ice season, things aren't looking good. We're in for another November 2011 to February 2012 season.
You see these outlooks online. I myself sometime put together an outlook. I've been into weather for over a decade and follow forecast maps and patterns.
Below are maps I came up with in October 2011 which proved to be right. I was catching yellow perch on a firetiger F-7 at Twin Brooks in January 2012 and bass up to 3 pounds were still slamming the sunset tiger J-7 at the funeral home in early December 2011. There was no ice and it rained much more than it snowed. I see the same thing happening this season due to the pattern the lower 48 has been seeing since late September.
November & December
January & February
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Crest Daddy
Joined: 20 Jan 2011
Posts: 994
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| Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2014 4:52 pm Post subject: |
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That does it. I'm selling my gear based on your observations. Thanks Michael !
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Michael
Joined: 28 Jan 2012
Posts: 3823
Location: Bridgeport
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| Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2014 7:13 pm Post subject: |
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| The big factor will be an El Nino causing there to be a tropical low pressure near Bermuda bringing us moisture and a strong ridge in the northern Great Lakes keeping temps warmer than normal and bringing wet waves of low pressure to us as they enter from the Pacific Northwest. |
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Crest Daddy
Joined: 20 Jan 2011
Posts: 994
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| Posted: Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:45 pm Post subject: |
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Still think it looks bad ?
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Trust me. Use waxworms ! |
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Michael
Joined: 28 Jan 2012
Posts: 3823
Location: Bridgeport
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| Posted: Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:01 pm Post subject: |
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This arctic blast has 2 ways of showing a sign.
First, Saturday is when it's supposed to warm up again before becoming rainy and reaching the mid and upper 50s Sunday and Monday with high humidity and dew points. Overnight Saturday and Sunday is not going to get below 40.
My 2 thoughts on this arctic blast are either a sign of a cold winter or one of those early unseasonable events that leads to a warmer than normal winter or warm start to the season.
Next thing will be keep an eye on the weather and temps during Thanksgiving week. |
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Dave N.
Joined: 26 Nov 2008
Posts: 77
Location: New Britain
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| Posted: Wed Nov 19, 2014 9:44 pm Post subject: |
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Mr Michael sir, perhaps the PCB's in all those bluefish you love so dearly happen to be imparting an intercranial synapse which causes one to resort to a semi or sometimes entirely delusional state of mind....in other words.....are you crazy  Just messin with u man....I love (trying) to predict the weather just as much as you and I hope the ice season gets under way real soon because ice makes me    .....oh and BTW u got some great posts....highly detailed and to the point....very helpful....take care man  |
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Michael
Joined: 28 Jan 2012
Posts: 3823
Location: Bridgeport
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| Posted: Thu Nov 20, 2014 12:12 am Post subject: |
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| Dave N. wrote: | | Mr Michael sir, perhaps the PCB's in all those bluefish you love so dearly happen to be imparting an intercranial synapse which causes one to resort to a semi or sometimes entirely delusional state of mind....in other words.....are you crazy Just messin with u man....I love (trying) to predict the weather just as much as you and I hope the ice season gets under way real soon because ice makes me .....oh and BTW u got some great posts....highly detailed and to the point....very helpful....take care man |
I'm already thinking about March trout, bass, and pickerel and April residential stripers
I WANT MY BLUES!!!!  |
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Michael
Joined: 28 Jan 2012
Posts: 3823
Location: Bridgeport
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| Posted: Thu Nov 20, 2014 12:14 am Post subject: |
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BTW.....
Surfcasters I know at Seaside always say to me, "hey Mike, what's the forecast look like?".
Some people now say, "hey Mr. Skitter Pop!". |
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Michael
Joined: 28 Jan 2012
Posts: 3823
Location: Bridgeport
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| Posted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:15 am Post subject: |
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I'm currently looking at the extended 7 day forecast for Mondo Pond. Rain could reach close to an inch through Monday night with temps not getting back down into the 30s until overnight Tuesday. Temps will then stay around 40 for the afternoon highs but get down into the upper 20s overnight. Both ponds were last seen about 90% covered with skim ice on Saturday.
I'm starting to consider this arctic blast we just had as a sign of a cold start to the season and the winter possibly being similar to that cold snowy one we had from December 2010 to February 2011.
As of now for the short term, it's looking like the season will start off cold with the chance for a December snow event. Once we get into the middle of December will be the time to start keeping a close eye on the forecast again.
Interesting thing is Anchorage has been having plenty of daytime highs in the 40s on the same days we've seen very cold windy temps. |
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Dave N.
Joined: 26 Nov 2008
Posts: 77
Location: New Britain
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| Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2014 9:32 am Post subject: |
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| Michael, now you're talkin'...the past 2 seasons we were on ice until the first week in april Hoping that trend continues. I usually look at the farmers almanac for a general outlook and surprisingly enough I have been impressed with the accuracy of predicted vs. actual forecast. At any rate it is what it is and will be what will be, I just hope for 3 solid months (12 trips) of hard water fishing. we fished every sunday last season from the 3rd week in dec. to,like I said, the first week in april. Then it was up to quincy bay for winter flounder, then spring tog in CT, then CT river stripers,then LIS seabass, porgies.....catch my drift!!!??? Needless to say, I keep busy. FISHING JUST ROCKS!!! |
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Crest Daddy
Joined: 20 Jan 2011
Posts: 994
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Michael
Joined: 28 Jan 2012
Posts: 3823
Location: Bridgeport
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| Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2014 9:53 pm Post subject: |
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I had a feeling the whole time CD.
Pattern back in early October was cold, wet, and windy compared to normal. Temps rose back up into the 50s for the latter part of the month and early November until we saw that very unseasonable arctic blast. Now look at this wet and mild weather we're in at the beginning of December. Mondo Ponds felt about 2 or 3 degrees warmer when I was there Monday vs the time I went in November when 90% of both ponds were covered in skim ice.
What I was thinking about back in September and October was this pattern we're currently in; a few days of mild weather with rain followed by a few days of cooler weather before it warms right back up without much snow. |
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Crest Daddy
Joined: 20 Jan 2011
Posts: 994
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| Posted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 5:40 pm Post subject: |
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Looks like no early ice but january and february are inevitably coming.
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Trust me. Use waxworms ! |
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Michael
Joined: 28 Jan 2012
Posts: 3823
Location: Bridgeport
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| Posted: Thu Dec 18, 2014 2:08 am Post subject: |
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How have things been in the hills vs close to the coast?
Tuesday I went to Mondo Pond and saw a few areas had very very skim black ice that melted through the afternoon before it started raining later.
Daytime temps have been staying in the lower and mid 40s with most nights not getting below freezing. Rain with a chance of snow is once again in the forecast after 2 days and nights of cooler temps before it becomes mild with 1 night forecasted to dip to just 39. The mild days and nights coming up will be part of another rain event lasting for 2 or 3 days.
This sure is working out for me and Mondo!
Sunsets are getting later now too! |
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Michael
Joined: 28 Jan 2012
Posts: 3823
Location: Bridgeport
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| Posted: Sun Dec 28, 2014 8:58 pm Post subject: |
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Monday is when it's supposed to get cold again. Daytime high for my area is 43. Tuesday through Friday is when highs are supposed to stay in the lower 30s. Overnight lows from Monday night to Thursday night will range from the upper teens to mid 20s.
Then overnight Friday is when the low will be 27 before getting back up into the mid 40s with rain Saturday and Sunday. Saturday's overnight low will only get down to 37.
We shall see how long the mild rainy weather lasts before it gets cold again. |
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